Revenue qualityDanger
매출 흑자인데 영업CF 적자 (OCF/매출 -24%). 통계적 정황 신호이며 회계부정 단정이 아닙니다.
Hercules Capital
HTGC-US · New York Stock Exchange$17.50+2.16%
2026-08-24 closeHercules Capital — what's the grade? And what signals are flashing today?
The grade and valuation bands are below — free to read.
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AI Insight
Why these signals fired — only backtest-proven edge, told honestly
Why this signalSignal guide
Moving-average alignment
Yes · score 0.57
New high + volume — the real recordrecord · not a prediction
Not this one stock, but every new-high-plus-volume pick we actually published (US market). When this stock flashes the signal, it is treated by the same rule.(as of 2026-08-25)
Last 30 sessions
257 picks
Next-day win rate
41%
Avg next-day
-0.41%
vs market
-0.58%p
Beat the market on 40.6% of picks (each pick vs its own day’s market average).
Recent publish days (next-day win rate)
08-21 42.9%08-20 57.1%08-19 11.1%08-18 75%08-17 50%08-14 66.7%08-13 16.7%08-12 25%08-11 45.5%08-10 23.1%08-07 54.5%08-06 46.2%
This stock has not flashed this signal recently — the record above is the signal’s own, not this stock’s.
Entry is the latest close at publish time; next-day is the following close. “Market” is the equal-weighted average of every stock in the same market that day; delisted names are excluded from both. Fees, taxes and slippage are not included. An observed record over a short window, not a pre-registered backtest. Not investment advice.
Trade plan
Decide the exit before you enter. Set what you are willing to lose first, and the share count follows — so you know the worst case before you buy.
Fill entry, stop, account size and risk percent to get a share count. The stop must sit below the entry.
This is a calculator, not advice, and it does not promise any outcome. You choose the stop and target — the button values (ATR, recent low/high) are observations from past prices. Actual fills depend on the order book and liquidity.
Valuation Grades
Relative to 531 은행 peers · not investment advice
A
Overall: 은행 95/531 · top 18%
Factor composite · relative position in sector
Financial safety
Reference indicatorAs of 2024Grey zoneFinancial-metric reference signal
Altman Z'' zoneZ'' 1.78
Distress
Grey
Safe
- Altman Z''
- 1.78
- Beneish M-Score
- -2.08
- Sloan accrual
- 9.95%
No statistical flag
부실·조작 위험을 나타내는 사실 지표입니다. 투자 조언이 아니며, 검증 전이라 참고용입니다.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Earnings quality · Piotroski F-Score
2/9Weak
Piotroski measures year-over-year financial improvement, not absolute quality.
Financial improvement score2/9
Profitability
- Positive ROAPass
- Positive OCFNot passed
- Improving ΔROANot passed
- Accruals (OCF > net income)Not passed
Leverage & liquidity
- Lower debtNot passed
- Higher current ratioNot passed
- No new sharesPass
Efficiency
- Higher gross marginNot passed
- Higher asset turnoverNot passed
Calculation note: F7(신주)은 equity/asset 유지로 근사
Already-stable companies may score lower when year-over-year improvement is limited.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Forensic signals
Anomaly and structural signals observed in the financial statements.
Factual information, not investment advice.
Industry structure
USAs of 2026-08-25은행
This stock is in 은행: revenue rank 144 of 245, share 0.1%.
144 / 2450.1%revenue share
Who dominates this industry?
- 1American Express15.6%
- 2CBRE Group Class A7.8%
- 3Jones Lang LaSalle5.1%
- 4Nu Holdings Class A2.5%
- 5American Tower REIT2.2%
- 6Hercules Capital0.1%
Concentration
DistributedCR3 28.5%HHI and CR3 are separate industrial-organization facts; they are not the polarization verdict.
Polarization
Winner-take-all deepeningConsistentPolarization measures industry gaps and structure, not valuation, forecast, or investment advice.
Margin lens
- IQR%p
- 23.64
- Direction
- 확대
- Level
- 넓음
- Years
- 8
Value lens
- P90/P10
- 11.8
- Median P/B
- 1.29
- Level
- 넓음
- n
- 224
Survivorship note: 현재 산업 멤버십을 과거 연도에 소급 적용 — 과거 진입·퇴출 기업 미반영(복원 불가)
Factual information, not investment advice.
Risk sensitivity — adverse assumptions
Metric changes under stated assumptions; not a forecast or investment advice.
Base metrics
- Operating margin
- 66%
- Interest coverage
- 5.2x
- Return on equity (ROE)
- 13.2%
Operating margin −5pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 5.2x adverse case 4.8x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 13.2% adverse case 12%
Revenue −15%
TolerableInterest coverageBase 5.2x adverse case 4.4x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 13.2% adverse case 10.8%
Interest rate +2pp
TolerableInterest coverageBase 5.2x adverse case 3.3x
Return on equity (ROE)Base 13.2% adverse case 11.4%
Interest coverage limit
Current margin 53.3ppInterest coverage limit at an operating margin of 12.7%
Interest expense coverage threshold
Financials at a glance
Hercules Capital's latest results and balance sheet. The bars track the last three periods.
📦 ETFs holding this stock
by weight · top-10 constituents basisPassive money holding this stock ≈ $79M(lower bound — top-10 basis, not a forecast)
- FT Confluence BDC & Specialty Finance Income ETF10.72%
- Putnam BDC Income ETF8.60%
- ProShares Global Listed Private Equity ETF4.46%
- WisdomTree Alternative Income Fund3.50%
- VanEck BDC Income ETF3.10%
Factual holdings info from daily disclosures — not a recommendation.
Look up another stock →Recent filings
Filings for overseas stocks are on the way. For now we cover Korean stocks only.
Signal history (last ~2 years)
Every occurrence on this stock, with the return 20 trading days later. Small sample — a record, not a prediction.
52-week high breakout×1
26-08-24·
Golden cross×1
26-08-12·
New MA alignment×5
26-08-19·26-08-13·26-07-31·26-07-10+7.7%26-07-01+0.1%
“·” = fewer than 20 trading days since the event. Cup-and-handle entries are days our board actually showed the badge (archive grows daily since 2026-05-12); others are recomputed from price data.
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